7-4 is not even close

A great Article by My good friend ALCRtide

by alcrtide
I have seen a number of respected posters say this week that they would be thrilled with 7-4 under the circumstances.

i just disagree - and so does the football team. Why do I say that? Just look at the team and at the schedule. We are substantially better than 6 teams on the schedule.
They are:
Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Utah State and Mississippi State.

Lets Look at the teams.
South Carolina, Ole Miss and Miss State are teams in mass transition with player suspensions and players quitting. None of them were world beaters last season and none of them will win many games this season. All three have new coaches - Ole Miss and USC this year, Miss State last year. We have 77 scholarship players of which four players were either transfers in or were awarded scholarships. Ole Miss, USC and Miss State are all at 75 players on scholarships this fall - or less. Florida is also at 75 scholarship players, but their scholarship players are from great recruiting classes. So that is six games we have absolutely no business losing.

The seventh team is Arkansas.
We are better than Arkansas in that it will be very, very difficult for the Razorbacks to score on us. No Matt Jones and he has beaten us the last two years - and our last two recruiting classes are superior to Arkansas. The only way we lose this game is with injuries to Brodie, the OL or we self destruct. We can lose this game, but Arkansas won't beat us.

That takes us to the big four - Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn.
If you go strictly by recruiting the last five years we have no business beating UF, UT and LSU.

Auburn is superior on the offensive and defensive lines, but Auburn can be had. If you tell me we are healthy when we go to Auburn with Brodie, KD and our defense intact we have a great chance to beat Auburn. If we are playing a frosh RB, a frosh QB and our OL is not up to par the advantage goes to Auburn. But then if Brandon Cox goes down Auburn is in trouble. And it is our offensive and defensive backfields this season that are superior.

Let's look at Florida.
Talent abounds, but there is a reason they have a new coach. They have gone 23-15 over the last three seasons - losing five games a season. This a supremely talented team, but one without discipline or toughness. Quite frankly, in the discipline, toughness, character and work ethic areas Alabama is a far superior team. Does our strength cancel out Florida's superior talent? Not necessarily, but when you add in the match-ups Alabama has a great chance to win this game. UF's strength is their passing game. We match that with the best pass defense in the SEC. Florida's weakness on defense is their pass defense. We match that with Brodie and the receiving corp. Of course that won't do us much good if we can't pass block.

UT is a program that is imploding.
Again, our advantage in discipline, toughness, character and work ethic gives us a chance. And it took a fumble on the 1st series last season at Knoxville to beat us. And we couldn't complete a pass. Well, Brodie can. I think we have a good chance to beat UT.

LSU is a terrible match-up for us.
LSU is absolutely loaded. But again, it took a horrendous pass interference call at Baton Rouge last year to beat us. And we couldn't complete a pass. Brodie can. Advantage LSU, but this is not an LSU gimme.

What's wrong with my assessment?
The lack of experience and the injuries on the offensive line and at tight end. But those injuries are minor and we get everybody back by the South Carolina game. We need everybody healthy for the Florida game. Antoine Caldwell and Cody Davis are back this week. B.J, Stabler is back in about three weeks as is Trent Davidson. Moose McLain is back in four. The injuries are there for two of our easist games before we go to USC.
If we can't pass block - I think our run blcoking will be just fine thank you - then we'll have trouble beating any of the quality teams. But with our talent at the offensive skill positions and on defense we will be in every game. And I think we'll win two of the four. Which ones? I don't know, but I like our chances.

If we lose any of the first four games we could be in for a very long season. As bad as 6-5. If we go into the UF game 4-0 I think we'll finish no worse than 8-3. If we beat UF and go into the Tennessee game 6-0 I think we'll win 9 or 10 games. I'm not giving up on this team, but I think we're more talented than the 2002 that that finished 10-3, particularly at the offensive skill positions and at LB and DB. But then we had a very good offensive line and good DT play that season. Something we may not have this season.

Bottom line - we'll be as good as the OL, the DT's and major injuries allow us. But this is not a 7-4 team with this schedule, this defense, this QB and our offensive backfield and WR's. We're better than that. And this team will tell you that.
Roll Tide