THE LSU Game Breakdown

I will try to explain the strengths and weaknesses on the upcoming BAMA v LSU game.

Here is a little history On LSU This Season.

LSU's Pass defense got spanked by Arizona State to the tune of close to 500 yards. They had over 600 yards of offense against them. LSU is good - but IMHO their Pass defense is suspect. Not only did LSU let ASU throw up and down the field on them - they also made Casey Clausen look like an ALL American.

What’s more Florida and Auburn while not having huge days number wise they passed on them as well. Leak is having a horrible year and Cox while he has some talent he is not Brodie. Did you see the VANDY v LSU game? Cutler when given time was able to slash their defense - granted that was not much but still it happened.

If you go troll the LSU boards (tigerdroppings.com) you will quickly find out that the LSU fans have serious doubts on Bo Pelini the LSU Defensive Coordinator.

People can point to Utah State and Mississippi State getting pressure on Brodie all they want but the fact is that against Tennessee we were able to keep Brodie untouched in the 1st half. UT has perhaps the best front 4 I have ever seen in college football. ALL 4 will be playing on Sundays.

Granted with adjustments at the Half UT was able to get to Brodie in the 3rd and 4th Quarter but the fact remains that UT had ZERO Pressure on BAMA in the 1st half.

If you will humble me I will tell you how I think it will go down.

In the 1st half Alabama will give LSU a steady dose of Either Darby on the ISO Dive or The Slants run by DJ, Brown, and ZEKE. It will depend on what the LSU OLB's do. If we read a blitz by their OLB's then we will throw or if they set back we will run. If they only blitz one and shift over into a cover 2 shallow Zone we will more than likely run the play as called - 60%-40% Run Pass Ratio.

We have to run the ball – If we have over 100 yards rushing by halftime we will be in the lead. If we have over 175 yards rushing for the entire game we will win.

In the 2nd half LSU will make adjustments and decide to do the opposite. If they have been blitzing then they will start to sit back or Vic versa.

The key to the game IMHO is not the O line – I think we will be able to give Brodie 3 seconds - no the key will be if DJ, Matt, Zeke, and Brown can catch the slants. Also if we are able to connect on the backside deep out pass pattern. If we can give Brodie 3 to 4 seconds without a blitz (and I think we can) then LSU will have to bring the backside Corner or OLB on a blitz. This will allow us to throw the deep out and LSU will loose inside containment on our WR’s thus allowing for curl’s and Slants.

If LSU cannot get pressure on us with their front 4 the game is over. Their DB’s are not good enough to shut us down one on one. If they have to blitz then that will leave guys open or in One on One coverage, most likely Walker the TE or Tim Castille as well as LeRon McClain and Darby coming out of the backfield. I expect to see a lot of the draw plays like what Jimmy Johns ran against Mississippi State up the middle as we will take the aggressive rush their DT's and DE's use and turn it against them.

It is important on the time we are able to give Brodie. The mistake that most people make is with the Blitz. If you can get pressure on a QB without blitzing - using just your down 4 guys (in a 4-3 defense) then that leaves 4 DB's to cover and 3 LB's to read the run pass. Tennessee was not able to get pressure without blitzing the LB's or CB's and it cost them.

Brodie has missed on a lot of TD passes lately. He missed on 2 wide-open TD passes that we should have made against UT and Mississippi State. However in the UT game if you watch the long pass to DJ at the end of the game UT was in single coverage with the Backside OLB blitzing. The CB and Safety had to respect the Slant, curl, etc because the LB was not there and thus let DJ break outside containment.

Brodie will have to have a good day and the WR's will have to catch the ball but If UT cannot get pressure on us without blitzing then there is no way that LSU can (even without JB Closner). When they Blitz we need to execute Plain and simple. We need to make the right read and we need to give Brodie 3 seconds and Brodie needs to make a accurate throw and then we need to catch the ball.

On Defense we just need to do what we have been doing. We are fundamentally sound. We have to have a big day from our DE’s. I think we will play a lot of the 3 – 3 – 5 this week like we did against Florida. LSU can be more of a passing team – Their bread and butter is with the run however – they are not like UT or Arkansas with a power running game - They use more of an attack style that we do. I think Our defense will play mostly 3-3-5 and wait on LSU to make mistakes. We will set back and play sound fundemental defense. For LSU to score they will have to put togather a 13 play drive.

We will not try to force anything until LSU has a penalty and then watch out. We will come after Russell with a delayed blitz. I don't think we will have a lot of QB pressures but the ones we do have will be on 3rd and long. I expect LSU to be able to move the ball - much like Florida but in the same fashion as UF they will stall as they reach our 30. We will have a shorter field to defend and thus will be able to blitz more. I would not be surprised to see us hold them to somthing like 3 field goals.

If LSU stays true to form they will have 1 or 2 turnovers and about 15 penalties. That is when we will stop them. We will play conservitive and let them make mistakes. We will stop them on Defense and play field position with them. When we get a turnover and flip the field on them we will open it up with play action and go long. We will try to move the ball on Offense. I expect most of our points to come on LSU turnovers however.

I think LSU will come out strong – but I doubt they score in the 2nd half. I think as the game goes on and we make our adjustments we will be better and better. I am not worried about the Defense or Special Teams. We will respond in both of those areas and I look for La. native Chris Keys to have a good day on special teams.

I think the O Line will step up and deliver just good enough of a performance and the WR’s will have hands of glue and Brodie will be on target. These guys know that if they win Saturday they are VERY CLOSE to making their dreams come true.

The Stats for Total Defense bring some things to light IMHO.

BAMA opponents TOTAL Defense Rankings
Florida - 11
Tennessee - 17
MTSU - 22
Ole Miss - 26
South Carolina 39
Miss State - 40
Arkansas - 57
Utah State - 71

LSU has Faced in Total Defense
Auburn - 9
Florida - 11
Tennessee - 17
Mississippi - 26
Vanderbilt - 78
North Texas - 106
Arizona State - 107
Appalachian State - 41 (in Div IAA)

Granted - We scored much less against some of the common opponents than LSU did but the fact remains that Alabama has faced week in and week out a much better defense than LSU has.
Whats more in game where LSU faced a tough Defense in AU, UF, and UT They were 2 and 1.

UT beat them in Over Time and LSU Rushed for 131yds
LSU pulled out a win against AU in OT and LSU rushed for 151.
They barely got past Florida and LSU Rushed for 171yds.

I think the secret to stopping them as in most games is making the other team one dimensional. If we can shut down their run game and force them to pass We will shut down their offense.

Granted they are the best team we have faced but they also make the most mistakes.

LSU is ranked
100 in Turnover Margin and
110 in Penalty Yardage per game

out of 117 teams that is not great. If we play balanced and cut out their big plays and wait for them to make mistakes we win. They will shoot themselves in the foot and like UT fans they will say we were not that good and that they should have beat us.

I think the difference is our defense will keep us in the game and our offense will be good enough to win. If LSU comes in and plays real bad it could be a blowout. A couple of big mistakes by them and we get up by 2 scores and they are toast.

My take is they have to beat us. We just have to not beat ourselves.

One thing I can promise – Those young men will lay it all out on the field. When the game is over there will be no doubt if we played our guts out. Don’t forget that this team feels like it should have won at LSU last year. The 2005 team’s mission is not done yet and they know it.

LSU is a very good team but they can be beat. I expect us to win if we execute and to me it will come down to Brodie and the WR's not the O Line. I might be wrong however - we will see.

Thanks for reading.

Roll Tide
Clay